Our Expert NBA Over/Under Picks to Help You Win Your Bets This Season

The crisp sound of sneakers on hardwood is back, and with it comes the thrilling uncertainty of a new NBA season. As a longtime hoops analyst and someone who’s spent more hours than I’d care to admit dissecting box scores and tracking player movement, this is my favorite time of year. The board is set, the narratives are writing themselves, and for bettors, it’s a fresh canvas. I’ve crunched the numbers, watched the preseason, and listened to the chatter. Today, I’m sharing my expert NBA over/under picks to help you win your bets this season. Let’s cut through the noise and get to the value.

Every season, the over/under win totals released by sportsbooks feel like the league’s first official report card. They set the tone. Last year, we saw the Sacramento Kings shatter their projection, while superteams like the Nets imploded. It’s a reminder that these numbers aren't destiny; they're opportunities. My approach blends cold, hard data—like strength of schedule and net rating projections—with a feel for team chemistry and health. I’m not just looking at rosters on paper; I’m thinking about how they’ll gel in March during a brutal road trip. It’s part science, part art. For instance, looking at the Memphis Grizzlies, who are sitting at a projected 46.5 wins, I have to weigh Ja Morant’s suspension against their incredible depth and regular-season resilience. It’s a fascinating puzzle.

This brings me to my first strong pick: the over on the Oklahoma City Thunder, currently set at 44.5 wins. I love this team. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a bona fide superstar, and Chet Holmgren’s preseason looked legit. They won 40 games last year with a ridiculously young roster. With another year of development and Holmgren adding a rim-protecting, floor-spacing dimension they sorely lacked, a 5-win improvement feels almost conservative. I’m projecting them closer to 48 wins. They’re young, hungry, and will run teams off the floor. Conversely, I’m leaning under on the Chicago Bulls at 37.5 wins. This feels like a team stuck in neutral. Their core of LaVone, DeRozan, and Vucevic is a year older, the defense was mediocre last season (ranking 21st), and I just don’t see a path to significant improvement in a tougher Eastern Conference. I have them pegged for 35 wins, maybe even 34 if they become trade-deadline sellers.

Sometimes, my analysis goes beyond the spreadsheet and into a more philosophical space. I was thinking about this while playing NBA 2K recently. Then again, I do see the appeal of throwing myself onto the 2007-08 Celtics and living out an alternate history. Though this isn't my preferred way to play, I find it speaks to NBA 2K's overall vibe: The game is an embarrassment of riches, offering a particular mode or focus for any possible player who might come to the game. In a way, that’s what the NBA season is for a bettor. It’s a sandbox of possibilities. You can focus on player props, game spreads, or, like we are here, season-long win totals. You can get hyper-analytical or play a hunch based on a narrative you believe in. The key is finding your edge. For me, with these over/under picks, the edge often lies in spotting teams the market is overvaluing due to nostalgia or big names, and finding the young, cohesive squads that are being undervalued.

Let’s talk about a team everyone is watching: the Phoenix Suns. Their line is astronomically high, set at 54.5 wins. On paper, the offensive firepower with Durant, Booker, and Beal is terrifying. But I’m taking the under here, and it’s a hill I’m willing to die on. That’s three high-usage, ball-dominant stars who will need to sacrifice. More importantly, their depth is suspect, and the injury risk with this trio, all of whom have missed significant time in recent years, is substantial. I think they’ll be a playoff force, but navigating an 82-game season? I see them landing around 51 or 52 wins as they manage workloads. It’s a bet against the superteam hype. On the other end, don’t sleep on the Orlando Magic. Their line is 36.5, and I’m all over the over. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are a dynamic duo, and their length and defense will keep them in games. I’m calling for a 40-win season and a push for the play-in tournament. They’re my dark horse.

In the end, these picks are a starting point. The season is a marathon, full of twists no one can predict. A key injury, a surprise trade, a locker-room rift—it can all change the calculus in an instant. But heading into opening night, these are the numbers I believe hold the most value. My expert NBA over/under picks to help you win your bets this season are built on a foundation of cautious optimism for the rising teams and a healthy skepticism for the established ones that may have passed their peak. Trust the data, but also trust your gut when a situation feels off. Now, let’s sit back, watch the games unfold, and hopefully, cash some tickets.